The 2023 winners should easily beat the Belgian side to avoid an embarrassingly early exit, but stranger things have happened at the Etihad of late
Nobody saw this coming. Nobody thought that any big club would be at risk of an early elimination from this season's revamped Champions League model – least of all Manchester City. Pep Guardiola's men lifted the trophy as recently as 2023 and went into the tournament as one of the favourites on the back of a fourth-consecutive Premier League title triumph.
And yet despite the fact that the group stage has given way to a league phase in order to protect Europe's richest clubs, state-sponsored City need to win their final fixture to avoid a humiliating fall at the first hurdle.
City should still progress to the play-off round, of course. They may not be able to field any of their new January signings, but they're at home, against Club Brugge, and are coming off a morale-boosting win over Chelsea.
On paper, then, City should cruise through. On the pitch, though, we've seen enough evidence to suggest that what would have been previously considered unthinkable is actually possible at the Etihad on Wednesday: the mighty Manchester City could actually suffer the most shocking exit in Champions League history…
Getty Images SportCity aren't back yet
City's league form has obviously improved since Christmas, although it couldn't have got much worse, in fairness. Still, after losing a barely believable six of their eight games between November 2 and December 21, they've now won four of their last five to put themselves back in a decent position to qualify for next season's Champions League.
Some pundits even hailed the return of the real City after the 6-0 rout of Ipswich Town on January 19, though – tellingly – Guardiola was having none of it.
"It takes time," he warned reporters. "Next season we will be really back. Now, it is a question of survival."
And City certainly looked like a team simply hoping to weather the storm in last Wednesday's Champions League clash with Paris Saint-Germain. PSG were under even more pressure to deliver on the night, but it was City – and not the Champions League's most infamous bottlers – that capitulated at Parc des Princes.
AdvertisementAFPStruggling to cope with intensity
Despite taking a totally undeserved 2-0 lead shortly after half-time, the visitors went to pieces as soon as Ousmane Dembele pulled a goal back for the hosts. As former England defender Matthew Upson said on, "You just knew that PSG would go on to win the game. It was just chance after chance. PSG ran riot."
And City were powerless to prevent them from doing so. Guardiola conceded that they just "could not cope" with the opponents' intensity in midfield and attacking threat out wide. By the end of the onslaught, City had been subjected to 26 shots on goal and restricted to just 36.8 percent possession. In that sense, it was one of the worst beatings of Guardiola's entire coaching career, with the final 4-2 scoreline failing to tell the whole story.
"If we don't pass the ball well, we are one of the worst teams," the Catalan confessed. "We need the ball to survive." PSG ripped it away from them – and with Rodri still sidelined through injury, there was nothing City could do about it.
"They got absolutely bullied in that second half and it was men against boys," ex-Liverpool defender Jamie Carragher said on s. "They were lucky it was only four in the end. It could have been worse."
Getty Images SportBlackouts
As Jack Grealish acknowledged, though, these blackouts have become worryingly frequent – and don't just occur against Europe's elite. On nine separate occasions this season, City have failed to win games that they were leading (five draws, four defeats) – no Premier League club has proven more profligate in all competitions.
Meanwhile, in the Champions League alone, City have dropped more points (eight) from winning positions than every other team bar the already-eliminated RB Leipzig (nine). It's no wonder, then, that a group of players that never previously lost faith in their own ability to turn things around now look nervous at the first sign of trouble.
"City's confidence has been dented and you can't just walk into the supermarket and buy confidence off the shelf," Upson argued. "They are not quite there physically either, but I think that is down to confidence. Once you get that sinking feeling, it is going to fall apart."
Crisis of confidence?
City should obviously dominate possession against Brugge. However, they hogged the ball against Feyenoord but still contrived to blow a 3-0 in the final 15 minutes of the game, and there is this undeniable psychological fragility about City that just wasn't there before.
"It's usually perfect for us if we come to these grounds and go two goals up," Grealish told at Parc des Princes. "I think that's when we're at our best (in terms of) managing the game, keeping the ball, a lot of passes and stuff.
"Unfortunately, too many times this season we've been a couple of goals up and then we end up losing it. I'm not sure why that is, whether it's a confidence thing or not. I'm not too sure at the moment. We had the momentum and then it just switched all of a sudden."
It is that heightened sense of insecurity that Brugge will be looking to exploit at the Etihad. In 14 previous attempts, the Belgians have never managed to win away to English opposition in European competition. However, they don't actually need to win in Manchester. A point would be enough to not only secure a play-off place, but also dump their hosts out of the tournament – and they'll be quietly confident of doing so.